Assuming the role of the "adult in the room" -- A Canadian foreign policy aspiration for 2019

ASSUMING THE ROLE OF THE "ADULT IN THE ROOM": A CANADIAN FOREIGN POLICY ASPIRATION FOR 2019

MY DAILY SCAN TURNED UP AN ANALYSIS OF THE LIKELY DIRECTION OF AMERICA'S FOREIGN POLICY IN 2019 BY ROSTISLAV ISHCHENKO ENTITLED: "WHAT AWAITS AMERICA IN 2019?" GIVEN CANADA'S STATUS AS A VASSAL OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE AND THE SUBORDINATION OF OUR FOREIGN POLICY TO THAT OF THE US, I WONDERED IF IT MIGHT SUGGEST WHERE THIS COUNTRY IS  HEADED IN THE COMING YEAR. ISHCHENKO'S ANALYSIS PROVIDES A USEFUL PLATFORM FOR ENVISIONING A RESPONSIBLE ROLE FOR CANADA IN AN ERA OF FOREIGN POLICY DELUSION AND LAWLESSNESS.  HTTPS://THESAKER.IS/WHAT-AWAITS-AMERICA-IN-2019/

IN SHORT, ISCHENKO SUGGESTS THAT AMERICA WILL PLAY THE ROLE OF SPOILER IN 2019. THE GOAL OF US FOREIGN POLICY WILL BE RESTORING AMERICA’S GLOBAL HEGEMONY EVEN AS ITS FAILED STRATEGY LEADS TO CONTINUED LOSS OF INFLUENCE. HAVING LOST THE BATTLE FOR GLOBAL HEGEMONY, US FOREIGN POLICY MAKERS (PERHAPS EVEN UNCONSCIOUSLY) WILL ENACT A POLICY OF OBSTRUCTION IN PURSUIT OF A STALEMATE. THUS, THE US WILL ENGAGE IN ACTIONS INTENDED TO SLOW THE RISE OF CHINA, THWART THE GROWTH OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND SABOTAGE THE STRENGTHENING OF RUSSIA-EUROPE TIES, GOING SO FAR AS TO ACTIVELY PURSUE THE DISMANTLING OF THE EU.  THE POLICY'S IMPLEMENTATION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY FAILING REAR GUARD ACTIONS.

THIS ANALYSIS RESONATES FOR ME. ANALYSTS HAVE WARNED THAT A DECLINING EMPIRE IS LIKELY TO THRASH ABOUT DANGEROUSLY LIKE A WOUNDED DRAGON AS THE END APPROACHES, AND WE HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN ERRATIC THRASHING ABOUT IN RECENT YEARS. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT A WOUNDED DRAGON TO DO, THE US HAS RESORTED TO EXAGGERATING, OR MORE ACCURATELY, FABRICATING ITS VICTORIES, AS IN THE CASE OF   THE DEFEAT OF ISIS IN SYRIA. (IT WAS ESSENTIALLY RUSSIA THAT DID THE JOB.) CANADA'S "ME TOO" ANTI RUSSIA STANCE IS ILLUSTRATIVE OF THE SPOILER ROLE. IT’S CONSISTED OF AN UNPRODUCTIVE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STAND-OFF SUSTAINED BY AN ONGOING CAMPAIGN TO DEMONIZE RUSSIA AND ITS LEADER. YES, CANADA HAS BEEN PLAYING THE LOSING GAME OF "SPOILER" ALONG WITH THE US. BUT THE REST OF THE WORLD IS MOVING ON.

IRONICALLY, THE OUTCOME OF THE POLICY IS THAT IT HAS HAD PRECISELY THE OPPOSITE EFFECT OF THAT INTENDED, INCREASING RUSSIA’S SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BOLSTERING ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH AND RESILIENCY AND FOSTERING STRENGTHENED ALLIANCES WITH IRAN, SYRIA AND CHINA. RUSSIA'S CONFIDENCE IN IT'S MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC CAPABILITIES HAS NO DOUBT GROWN IN THE WAKE OF ITS DEFEAT OF ISIS IN SYRIA AND ITS MODERATING TURKEY-SYRIA- IRAN TENSIONS. THIS HAS PERSUADED SOME COUNTRIES LIKE LIBYA TO SEEK RUSSIA’S HELP IS RESOLVING INTERNAL CONFLICTS GIVEN ITS APPARENTLY SUPERIOR DIPLOMATIC SKILLS. 

AS SUGGESTED EARLIER, THE WOUNDED DRAGON, IN PURSUIT OF A STALEMATE IN THE BATTLE FOR GLOBAL HEGEMONY, WILL BE INTENT ON INCITING CONFLICTS AND DISRUPTING RELATIONSHIPS. THAT WILL BE LABELLED "THREATS." AS A RESULT, RUSSIA WILL BE FORCED TO PLAY WHAT I CALL THE ROLE OF THE “ADULT IN THE ROOM” IN 2019, EXTINGUISHING FIRES AND RESTORING STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE DRAGON'S DESTRUCTIVE THRASHING. THE DANGEROUS DOCTRINE OF AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM, IT SEEMS, SERVES AS NOTHING MORE THAN A SEDATIVE FOR AN EASILY ENTHRALLED AMERICAN PUBLIC AND CONVENIENT JUSTIFICATION FOR IMPERIAL OVER-REACH. 

THIS OF COURSE, RAISES THE QUESTION OF WHAT CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE CANADA COULD PLAY IN A CONTEXT OF CONTINUING FOREIGN POLICY DISTEMPER, MY HOPE IS THAT CANADA  WOULD POSITION ITSELF AS AN ADDITIONAL “ADULT IN THE ROOM,” RESPONSIBLY SEEKING TO DISSUADE THE DRAGON FROM FURTHER ACTING OUT, SOME "DRAGON-WHISPERING" IF YOU WILL. IN CONCRETE TERMS, THIS WORK WOULD INCLUDE CALLING FOR AN OBJECTIVE REVIEW OF NATO’S DESTRUCTIVE PERFORMANCE DURING THE COURSE OF THE SO CALLED “WAR ON TERROR,” A MISNOMER FROM THE OUTSET (SEE LIBYA) AND ITS PROVOCATIVE STAND-OFF WITH RUSSIA.

​THE LATTER IS OF COURSE, UNSUSTAINABLE -- RESTING ON THE FALSE FLAG DECEPTION OF THE WEST'S MAIDAN SQUARE UKRAINE COUP. BESIDES, THERE’S LIKELY A GOOD DEAL MORE TO BE GAINED THROUGH A COLLABORATIVE PARTNERSHIP WITH RUSSIA BASED ON A REALISTIC ACCEPTANCE OF THE EMERGING MUILTI-POLAR GLOBAL MODEL. HOW EXACTLY DOES A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT ANTI-RUSSIA POSTURING AND ECONOMIC WARFARE SERVE CANADA'S INTERESTS?

SUCH A POLICY WOULD OF COURSE BE LABELLED "DANGEROUS"-- SOMETHING AMOUNTING TO "HERESY" BY THOSE PUSHING THE CURRENT COLD WAR 2.0  PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN. AT THAT POINT, WE CONTRARIANS WILL POINT OUT TO CRITICS THAT HISTORY FREQUENTLY DEMONSTRATES THAT TODAY'S HERESY BECOMES TOMORROW'S CONVENTIONAL WISDOM. AND WE WILL ALSO REMIND THEM THAT THE DEFINITION OF INSANITY IS DOING THE SAME THINGS OVER AND OVER AND EXPECTING A DIFFERENT RESULT. 

​IT'S WHAT RESPONSIBLE ADULTS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DO UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
- ROD 
(DEC 9, REV DEC 10, 13/19)